World

Iran Will Target an Arab Country Before September 30

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (100%)

Leading outcome September 30 100% Virtually certain · Rising · A · tracked 23 days peak 100% · low 78% (21d ago) probably not → virtually certain

24h move ▲ 61.5 pts September 30

Traded 24h $55K $139K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-31

Where the money stands

September 30 100% ▲ 61.5

October 31 100% ▲ 25.9

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 72% · +1.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 5 99% · +0.9 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -1.0 24h

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -7.0 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 73% · +1.0 24h

Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100% · +61.5 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 20%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 31 84% · +2.0 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 31% · -9.5 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 3%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 10%

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 50% · +1.5 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -1.0 24h

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 18% · -1.0 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 87%