World

Iran Has Struck an Arab Country — but the Wider War Remains Contained

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (100%)

Leading outcome September 30 100% Virtually certain · A

24h move ▲ 12.4 pts September 30

Traded 24h $48K $49K all time

Resolves by 2026-09-30

Where the money stands

September 30 100% ▲ 12.4

September 15 100% ▲ 27.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · +1.0 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · August 31 100%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 61% · -0.9 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 3%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · +2.5 24h

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 17% · -0.5 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 75% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10%

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 10% · +3.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 56% · -3.0 24h

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 36% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 28% · -1.0 24h

Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100% · +12.4 24h

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 89% · +2.6 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · September 30 8% · -2.0 24h

Will Iran target Jordan by...? Polymarket · September 15 99% · +41.6 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 10%

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 83%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 44% · +10.0 24h

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 22%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h