Worldodds favor Lula

Lula Leads Brazil's First Round as Flávio Bolsonaro Surges

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner”

Lula: leaning yes (70%)
Leading outcome Lula 70% Leaning yes · Stable · B · tracked 10 days peak 80% (8d ago) · low 70%
24h move ▼ 6.0 pts Lula
Traded 24h $20K $128K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-04
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Lula 70% ▼ 6.0
Flavio Bolsonaro 30% ▲ 8.0
Ronaldo Caiado 0% 0.0
Zema 0% 0.0
Renan Santos 0% 0.0
Pablo Marçal 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 57% · +2.2 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 70% · -4.5 24h
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Cleitinho Azevedo 90% · +2.2 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 50% · -1.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Lula 70% · -6.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 45% · +11.0 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 98%
Ceará Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Ciro Gomes 58% · -0.5 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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