Hormuz Transit Levels by September 30 Are Now a Coin Flip
Source: Polymarket market “Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?”
0-5: leaning yes (67%)
Leading outcome
0-5 67%
Leaning yes · B
likely → leaning yes
24h move
▼
19.5 pts
0-5
Traded 24h
$20K
$85K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-01
in 2 days
Source markets
28
28 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
0-5
67%
▼
19.5
5-10
28%
▲
18.0
15-20
1%
0.4
25-30
1%
▼
1.0
20-25
0%
0.1
10-15
0%
▼
1.3
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 71% · -2.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · September 30 96% · +5.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 14% · +1.0 24h
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
Polymarket · October 31 78% · +8.9 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 4%
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 40%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 74% · +3.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 0%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 66% · -13.0 24h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Polymarket · December 31 17% · -1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 22% · +1.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · September 30 98% · +1.0 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 10%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27)
Kalshi · Above 10 99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 0%
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 18% · +2.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 12% · -3.0 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by December 31 35% · +13.5 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 23% · -5.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
Polymarket · 0-5 67% · -19.5 24h
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Polymarket · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 78% · -2.0 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 2% · +1.2 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Polymarket · December 31 22% · -1.0 24h
The Money Talks —
The Diplomatic Window Is Still Open — But It's Narrowing Fast
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