U.S.

Georgia's 9th District Race Likely Avoids a Runoff

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election?”

likely (76%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome Yes 76% Likely · B venues disagree 13.0pp
24h move ▼ 11.6 pts Yes
Traded 24h $30K $32K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 Today
Source markets 140 140 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Who will control the House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 100% · +6.4 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 90% · +53.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +5.5 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +23.4 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +23.4 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 99% · +25.9 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 100% · +25.4 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 99% · +8.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 92% · +8.4 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 96% · +29.1 24h
Florida Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 100% · +35.4 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Gina Hinojosa (D) 100% · +60.5 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 97% · +16.4 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 100% · +12.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +0.7 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 2+ pts 100% · +35.9 24h
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi · Julia Letlow 99% · +10.7 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 31 100% · +17.2 24h
TX-23 House winner? Kalshi · Katy Padilla Stout 95% · +51.1 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · 55 83% · +70.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Annie Andrews (D) 100% · +68.5 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 99% · +25.6 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 96% · +18.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 92% · +20.9 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 93% · +7.2 24h
Tennessee Governor winner? Kalshi · Marsha Blackburn 98% · +4.6 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 97% · +27.8 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 99% · +42.6 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 14 to 16% 85% · +76.9 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 100% · +47.4 24h
Kansas Governor winner? Kalshi · Cindy Holscher 89% · +54.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 100% · +27.5 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 98% · +7.7 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 100% · +38.5 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 100% · +16.4 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 94% · +16.6 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 62% · +2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 99% · +6.8 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Mississippi 76% · +72.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 92% · +19.5 24h
Maine Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Troy Jackson 96% · +22.5 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Abbott, 18+ pts 6% · +2.2 24h
Georgia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 100% · +29.4 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 100% · +3.9 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 97% · +21.2 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 62% · +1.8 24h
Michigan Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 99% · +4.0 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Holscher (D) 90% · +54.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 99% · +7.1 24h
NV-02 House winner? Kalshi · Teresa Benitez-Thompson 83% · +47.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 68% · +64.0 24h
NC-05 House winner? Kalshi · Virginia Foxx 83% · -1.0 24h
Will the House impeach Trump? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 75% · +11.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 100% · +8.3 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 45 83% · +71.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 99% · +65.5 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 100% · +13.0 24h
MI-07 House winner? Kalshi · William Lawrence 83% · +4.0 24h
TX-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Katy Padilla Stout (D) 96% · +52.8 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 100% · +6.2 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory Kalshi · Hinojosa, 1+ pts 100% · +67.9 24h
ME-02 House winner? Kalshi · Paul LePage 95% · +36.9 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 99% · +43.7 24h
IN-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · J. D. Ford (D) 97% · +75.4 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 100% · +14.4 24h
NY-01 House winner? Kalshi · Nick LaLota 93% · +12.6 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 100%
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 0.5+ pts 98% · +27.1 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ossoff, 12+ pts 100% · +49.9 24h
MI-04 House winner? Kalshi · Sean McCann 70% · +9.0 24h
AZ-02 House winner? Kalshi · Eli Crane 68% · +11.0 24h
Michigan Senate: margin of victory Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% 58% · +42.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 98% · +67.2 24h
South Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Graham, 3.5+ pts 10% · -27.1 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 99% · +38.0 24h
Tennessee Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) 99% · +4.5 24h
NY-02 House winner? Kalshi · Andrew Garbarino 97% · +9.9 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 98% · +64.8 24h
GA-01 House winner? Kalshi · Jim Kingston 99% · +11.0 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 99% · +15.6 24h
MN-01 House winner? Kalshi · Brad Finstad 92% · +30.9 24h
Minnesota Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Klobuchar (D) 99% · +2.1 24h
Texas Governor: margin of victory Kalshi · Gina Hinojosa, ≥6% 86% · +80.0 24h
KY-06 House Election Winner Polymarket · Zach Dembo (D) 100% · +44.5 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +55.4 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 78% · -5.5 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 99% · +30.9 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Polymarket · Democrats 14-16% 80% · +71.2 24h
Arkansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 100% · +3.9 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 97% · +26.9 24h
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win? Kalshi · Texas, Alaska 99% · +85.0 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 99% · +2.5 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine Polymarket · Dems sweep 96% · +33.1 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 96% · +7.8 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 99% · +34.6 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 4+ pts 100% · +6.1 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 99% · +61.4 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 99% · +14.1 24h
VA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shannon Taylor (D) 98% · +30.9 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 100% · +50.9 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 81% · +33.6 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms? Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 97% · +62.8 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 97% · +35.5 24h
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Mike Mazzei (R) 100% · +9.4 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 95% · +36.5 24h
AP calls the Senate by...? Polymarket · November 4, 11:59 PM 100% · +47.9 24h
South Carolina Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Alan Wilson (R) 99% · +3.4 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 99% · +10.3 24h
FL-22 House Election Winner Polymarket · Pia Dandiya (D) 100% · +25.4 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 99% · +36.0 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Dwayne Romero (D) 67% · +28.0 24h
PA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Bob Harvie (D) 98% · +31.6 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 98% · +68.3 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 100% · +31.1 24h
AP calls the House by...? Polymarket · November 15, 11:59 PM 100% · +5.8 24h
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 97% · +56.8 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · El-Sayed 3-6% 58% · +37.0 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 87% · +52.5 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · French Hill (R) 96% · +21.5 24h
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Donalds 0-3% 96% · +70.8 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 57% · +34.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 68% · +45.6 24h
NC-14 House Election Winner Polymarket · Lakesha Womack (D) 99% · +78.5 24h
MO-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Fred Wellman (D) 100% · +58.5 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election? Polymarket · Yes 76% · -11.6 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 97% · +26.3 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93% · +29.9 24h
Alabama Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tommy Tuberville (R) 98% · +4.8 24h
New Mexico Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Deb Haaland (D) 100% · +4.6 24h
IA-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Christina Bohannan (D) 98% · +5.0 24h
NC-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Don Davis (D) 99% · +11.7 24h
KS-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Derek Schmidt (R) 99% · +20.3 24h
FL-26 House Election Winner Polymarket · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) 90% · +4.2 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) Polymarket · Ossoff 15-18% 56% · +46.1 24h
VA-06 House Election Winner Polymarket · Ben Cline (R) 100% · +5.5 24h
Colorado Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Phil Weiser (D) 100% · +2.8 24h
Nebraska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Pillen (R) 95% · +4.5 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027? Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 66% · +20.5 24h
Closest Senate Race? Polymarket · Mississippi 63% · +59.5 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. all but decided

Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Flip Texas and Retake Both Chambers

James Talarico (D): virtually certain (100%)

What had been a likely Democratic pickup in Texas is now a virtual certainty — and read alongside complete Democratic control of the House and Senate, this is the money's clearest statement yet that 2026 looks like a wave election. The conviction has been volatile all cycle, so a reversal remains possible, but the breadth of the reprice is hard to dismiss.

Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $8.7M markets read 140 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 96 days range 82% (0d ago) – 50% (51d ago) resolves today trending in today's news likely → virtually certain 2 tier changes venues disagree 13.0pp
U.S. Nithya Raman on track to win

Nithya Raman Is Very Likely the Next Mayor of Los Angeles

Nithya Raman: very likely (94%)

Karen Bass's collapse — from frontrunner to a 6% afterthought — represents one of the sharpest single-day reversals in this race, which has repriced dramatically eight times. Raman's rise to 94% suggests something decisive has shifted in how informed money reads this contest, though the market's volatility means the story isn't fully closed.

Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $11.0M markets read 3 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 98 days range 68% (79d ago) – 50% (15d ago) 8 tier changes venues disagree 3.9pp
U.S. all but decided

Democrats Are Virtually Certain to Sweep Texas's Senate and Governor Races

Dems sweep: virtually certain (100%)

What had been probably not just yesterday is now a virtual certainty — a seismic shift that, read alongside the broader 2026 Senate and House markets, points to a Democratic wave of historic proportions in a state once considered untouchable Republican territory.

Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $69K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 6 days range 44% (1d ago) – 37% (4d ago) resolves today trending in today's news probably not → virtually certain