World

Tropical Storm Lala Likely Misses Hawaii as a Hurricane

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?”

unlikely (16%)
Leading outcome Yes 16% Unlikely · D
24h move ▼ 9.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $13K $16K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-19 in 3 days
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Iran Strikes Shipping in the Strait — and No Quick End Is in Sight

very likely (94%)

The blockade is now an entrenched reality, not a pressure tactic: Hormuz traffic almost certainly will not normalize by August, a negotiation extension is nearly dead, and even the best-case off-ramp — an Iran-Oman agreement — is only a coin-flip by September, leaving global energy markets exposed well into year-end.

Updated 10:53 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Edges Ahead in Israel's Post-Election Leadership Race

Gadi Eizenkot: leaning yes (55%)

A leadership transition in Israel increasingly runs through the center-left — Netanyahu's grip on the post-war political order is loosening, with his odds falling as Eizenkot consolidates a narrow but real advantage in a high-attention, high-stakes succession contest.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $47K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news
World odds favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Lula Increasingly Favored to Win Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: leaning yes (64%)

The opposition remains fragmented across Flávio Bolsonaro and others, and no single challenger has consolidated enough support to mount a credible threat — Lula's incumbency advantage looks durable rather than merely nominal.

Updated 7:04 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $388K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B