World

Hormuz Traffic Will Not Return to Normal Before October 31

By Priced In News Staff

very unlikely (10%)

Leading outcome Yes 10% Very unlikely · Falling · A

24h move 0.0 pts Yes

Traded 24h $26K $330K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-31

Source markets for this story

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · +1.0 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 61% · -1.1 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · August 31 100%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 3%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 29% · +4.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 75% · -1.0 24h

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 8% · +1.5 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 58% · -1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 28% · -1.0 24h

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 36% · -2.0 24h

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 89% · +2.6 24h

Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100% · +12.4 24h

US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 30% · +2.0 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · September 30 8% · -2.0 24h

Will Iran target Jordan by...? Polymarket · September 15 100% · +36.8 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 82%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 10%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 43% · +10.5 24h

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? Polymarket · December 31 22%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h

Will Iran target Iraq by...? Polymarket · September 15 96% · +53.4 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...? Polymarket · September 30 94% · -1.0 24h