World

Sudan's Civil War Is Likely to Run Through the End of 2026 Without a Ceasefire

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?”

unlikely (12%)
Leading outcome December 31, 2026 12% Unlikely · D
24h move ▼ 2.0 pts December 31, 2026
Traded 24h $13K $119K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

Iran Likely Strikes an Arab Country This Week as Nuclear Talks Collapse

likely (78%)

The negotiating track is functionally dead — extension odds are near zero, a final deal sits at 11%, and Hormuz normalization by September is priced at 8%. What remains is a military confrontation posture, with an Arab-country strike the most immediate expression of it.

Updated 5:57 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $167K markets read 22 venue Polymarket grade A trending in today's news
World odds favor United Russia (ER)

United Russia Is Likely to Dominate the Next Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): leaning yes (74%)

The Kremlin's legislative lock looks durable, with rival vehicles — including the once-rising New People — losing ground, signaling that no managed-opposition party is being groomed to challenge the dominant bloc's plurality before September.

Updated 12:32 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $67K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A
World odds favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Lula Holds a Clear Lead in Brazil's Presidential Race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: leaning yes (66%)

Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidating the opposition lane — second place looks his to lose — but the field remains too fragmented to threaten Lula's front-runner position heading into October.

Updated 6:54 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $919K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B