Le Pen's Presidential Bid Is Now a Coin Flip
Source: Polymarket market “Next French Presidential Election”
Marine Le Pen: probably not (43%)
Leading outcome
Marine Le Pen 43%
Probably not · Stable · B · tracked 89 days
peak 48% (7d ago) · low 29% (88d ago)
a coin flip → probably not
4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
2.5 pts
Marine Le Pen
Traded 24h
$654K
$156.9M all time
Resolves by
2027-04-19
Source markets
2
2 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Marine Le Pen
43%
▼
2.5
Édouard Philippe
16%
▼
2.0
David Lisnard
14%
▲
1.3
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12%
0.0
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
0.1
François Hollande
3%
▲
0.7
Source markets for this story
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket · Marine Le Pen 43% · -2.5 24h
France declares state of emergency by...?
Polymarket · December 31 9% · -6.5 24h
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