Iran Likely Strikes Shipping on August 14 as Hormuz Closure Drags On
Source: Polymarket market “Iran successfully targets shipping on...?”
likely (80%)
Leading outcome
August 14 80%
Likely · Rising · A
24h move
▲
57.5 pts
August 14
Traded 24h
$22K
$135K all time
Resolves by
2026-08-31
Source markets
23
23 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
August 14
80%
▲
57.5
August 16
40%
▲
27.0
August 26
36%
▲
28.5
August 25
34%
▲
25.5
August 27
32%
▲
24.5
August 15
26%
▲
4.0
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · December 31 79% · +0.8 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Polymarket · August 31 2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · August 15 100%
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Polymarket · August 15 2% · +1.8 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · September 30 61% · +5.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 14%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Polymarket · Yes 16% · -2.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 46%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2027 48% · -3.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 9% · +0.5 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Polymarket · December 31 49% · -1.0 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 40% · -5.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 32% · +1.5 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 67% · -2.1 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Polymarket · September 30 32% · +2.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 18% · -1.0 24h
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
Polymarket · August 14 80% · +57.5 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 72% · -0.5 24h
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Polymarket · August 31 7% · +1.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 81%
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