World

NATO Article 5 Will Not Be Invoked Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “NATO article 5 before 2027?”

very unlikely (4%)
Leading outcome Yes 4% Very unlikely · D
24h move ▼ 2.4 pts Yes
Traded 24h $12K $197K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

Iran's Blockade Ends Well Before Year's Close, but the Strait Stays Shut for Now

very likely (92%)

A ceasefire holds and a diplomatic resolution is coming — but Hormuz traffic remains paralyzed in the near term, with normalization through August nearly certain to fail, signaling that the deal's implementation will lag the announcement by months.

Updated 1:10 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.1M markets read 33 venue Polymarket grade A
World

Hamas Disarmament by Year-End Narrowly Favored

a coin flip (54%)

A fragile lean, not a conviction — the 54% price on a Hamas agreement to disarm by December 31 reflects how genuinely uncertain the endgame looks, and any breakdown in talks could flip it instantly. The money is not pricing a deal as likely; it is pricing a world where the pressure is just barely enough.

Updated 11:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $21K venue Polymarket grade C