World

A Nuclear Deal With Iran Is Not Coming This Year

By Priced In News Staff

very unlikely (10%)

Leading outcome September 30 10% Very unlikely · Falling · B

24h move ▼ 2.0 pts September 30

Traded 24h $12K $329K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-01

Where the money stands

September 30 10% ▼ 2.0

August 31 1% ▲ 0.5

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · August 31 100%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 12% · +1.5 24h

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 30 68%

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 60% · -1.0 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 83%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26% · -2.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? Polymarket · Yes 100%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 90% · +1.2 24h