World

Clacton by-election Winner

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Clacton by-election Winner”

virtually certain (100%)
Resolved The money put Nigel Farage at 99% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Nigel Farage 100% Virtually certain · Stable · B · tracked 48 days
24h move ▲ 0.8 pts Nigel Farage
Traded 24h $602K $5.7M all time
Resolves by 2026-08-13
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World

Israel and Lebanon Are Virtually Certain to Hold Diplomatic Talks Before September 25

virtually certain (99%)

What had been likely is now virtually certain — a formal diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon appears locked in, with every near-term deadline priced above 95%. The political ground beneath it remains unstable: Netanyahu's hold on power is a coin flip, and Eizenkot's path to replace him is only marginally favored, meaning the diplomatic channel could outlast the government that opened it.

Updated 7:01 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $113K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 34 days range 95% (4d ago) – 64% (7d ago) likely → virtually certain 9 tier changes
World United Russia (ER) on track to win

United Russia Is Likely to Dominate the Coming Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): likely (76%)

The result is close to foregone — a separate contract pricing United Russia's outright win at 99% makes the 76% 'most seats' figure almost a question of margin, not outcome; the only live uncertainty is whether the party clears 325 seats, which is itself a likely outcome.

Updated 3:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $304K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 48 days range 80% (1d ago) – 60% (46d ago) resolves in 5 days trending in today's news
World

US-Iran Diplomatic Talks This Year Remain an Open Question

probably not (30%)

A ceasefire is all but certain, but who sits across the table — and whether formal talks happen at all — is genuinely unresolved; with Hormuz still disrupted and blockade-end odds at 61%, the ceasefire is holding without producing real diplomacy.

Updated 8:28 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $52K markets read 23 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 34 days range 78% (32d ago) – 24% (5d ago) 10 tier changes