A US-Iran Nuclear Deal Looks Increasingly Hollow Even If Signed
Source: Polymarket market “What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”
unlikely (22%)
Leading outcome
Iran Reconstruction Funding 22%
Unlikely · Falling · A
24h move
▼
4.0 pts
Iran Reconstruction Funding
Traded 24h
$47K
$640K all time
Resolves by
2026-12-31
Source markets
24
24 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Iran Reconstruction Funding
22%
▼
4.0
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
12%
▼
5.0
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
10%
▼
1.0
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
10%
▼
5.5
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
10%
▼
4.0
Enriched Uranium Surrender
9%
▼
1.5
Source markets for this story
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · Yes 8% · -3.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Polymarket · August 31 1% · -0.6 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · December 31 68% · -5.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 12% · -6.0 24h
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Polymarket · Yes 1% · -2.9 24h
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
Polymarket · August 17 81% · -3.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · August 31 94% · +1.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2027 46% · +1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 36% · +1.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 8%
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Polymarket · March 31, 2027 76% · -2.5 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · August 22 96%
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 75% · +5.6 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Polymarket · December 31 58% · +4.5 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 41%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · September 30 58% · -0.5 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket · Iran Reconstruction Funding 22% · -4.0 24h
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Polymarket · September 30 12%
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Polymarket · August 31 8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 18%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 50% · +5.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 34% · -2.0 24h
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Polymarket · Lebanon 8%
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%
The Money Talks —
Iran Is Likely to Strike an Arab Neighbor Before the Week Is Out
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