World

US-Iran Diplomacy Is Leaning Toward Resumption, but the Timeline Stays Murky

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?”

leaning yes (74%)
Leading outcome March 31, 2027 74% Leaning yes · Rising · A · tracked 55 days peak 78% (35d ago) · low 30% (38d ago) 11 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 8.0 pts March 31, 2027
Traded 24h $279K $12.0M all time
Resolves by 2027-06-23
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

March 31, 2027 74% ▲ 8.0
December 31, 2026 59% ▲ 12.5
October 31, 2026 38% ▲ 4.0
September 30, 2026 24% ▲ 9.0

Source markets for this story

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -1.0 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 65% · +2.0 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 74% · +8.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 23% · +3.5 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 71% · +4.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 25 97% · +2.5 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 96% · +0.7 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 39% · +4.0 24h
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 77% · -9.2 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · +3.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Abbas Araghchi 56% · +21.0 24h
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14? Polymarket · 20-24 95% · +63.1 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 33% · -0.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 18% · +2.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 24% · -1.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 84%
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Very Likely to Hold Through Late September
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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