U.S.odds favor Eduardo Paes

Eduardo Paes Is Likely to Win the Rio de Janeiro Governor's Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner”

Eduardo Paes: leaning yes (68%)
Resolved The money put Eduardo Paes at 96% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Eduardo Paes 68% Leaning yes · Stable · B · tracked 47 days peak 97% (46d ago) · low 73% likely → leaning yes 2 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 35.8pp
24h move ▼ 12.9 pts Eduardo Paes
Traded 24h $21K $568K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05 in 4 days
Source markets 14 14 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Eduardo Paes 68% ▼ 12.9
Douglas Ruas 32% ▲ 12.5
Dr. Luizinho 0% 0.0
Eduardo Pazuello 0% 0.0
Tarcísio Motta 0% 0.0
Anthony Garotinho 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 62% · +2.6 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 72% · -2.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Lula 72% · -3.5 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 60% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 46% · -6.0 24h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -0.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 57% · +1.0 24h
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place Polymarket · Guilherme Derrite 71% · -3.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? Polymarket · 39%+ 90% · +2.0 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round? Polymarket · Yes 99% · +14.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 44% · -1.5 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 98%
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Eduardo Paes 68% · -12.9 24h
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Luciano Zucco 87% · +8.5 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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