U.S.Kurt Alme (R) on track to win

Republicans Likely Hold Montana Senate Seat, But Grip Has Loosened

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Montana Senate Election Winner”

Kurt Alme (R): likely (89%)
Leading outcome Kurt Alme (R) 89% Likely · A very likely → likely venues agree
24h move ▼ 1.5 pts Kurt Alme (R)
Traded 24h $80K $290K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 6 days
Source markets 35 35 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Kurt Alme (R) 89% ▼ 1.5
Independent 10% ▲ 1.1
Alani Bankhead (D) 0% 0.1

Source markets for this story

Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 69% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 74% · +5.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 68% · -4.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 51% · -9.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 73% · +3.5 24h
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Moody 90%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 53% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 72% · -1.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 71% · -1.5 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 73% · +3.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 58% · +5.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 90%
NC-11 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 84% · -4.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 63% · +2.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 91% · +1.6 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 69% · -4.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 69% · +2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 72%
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 88% · +1.0 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 59% · -4.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 51% · -6.5 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 65% · +2.5 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90% · -2.0 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 89% · -3.1 24h
VA-05 House winner? Kalshi · John McGuire 58% · +1.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 89% · +1.0 24h
NC-11 House winner? Kalshi · Jamie Ager 85% · -1.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -2.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 89% · -1.5 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 66% · +5.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 70% · -1.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 53% · -2.5 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 90% · -1.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 86% · -0.5 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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James Talarico (D): leaning yes (64%)

A Democratic win in Texas would signal a broader Senate map expansion; read alongside Democratic leads in Ohio and a strong hold in Alaska, the money now favors a Senate pickup environment that extends well beyond safe territory.

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Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

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