U.S.odds favor Aaron Ford (D)

Nevada's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Nevada Governor Election Winner”

Aaron Ford (D): leaning yes (56%)
Resolved The money put Joe Lombardo (R) at 60% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Aaron Ford (D) 56% Leaning yes · Falling · A · tracked 36 days peak 60% (26d ago) · low 48% (19d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 2 tier changes over tracking period venues agree
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts Aaron Ford (D)
Traded 24h $78K $336K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 7 7 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Aaron Ford (D) 56% ▲ 3.0
Joe Lombardo (R) 43% ▼ 2.5

Source markets for this story

California Governor winner? (Person) Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 96%
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi · Aaron Ford 54% · +6.0 24h
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi · Rob Sand 86% · +1.0 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 56% · +3.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 73% · -2.7 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96%
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 88% · +4.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 68 days range 94% (1d ago) – 86% (62d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.4pp
U.S. odds favor James Talarico (D)

James Talarico Edges Ahead as Democrats Favor Texas Senate Seat

James Talarico (D): leaning yes (64%)

A Democratic win in Texas would signal a broader Senate map expansion; read alongside Democratic leads in Ohio and a strong hold in Alaska, the money now favors a Senate pickup environment that extends well beyond safe territory.

Updated 6:17 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $136K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 66 days range 64% (1d ago) – 50% (21d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Race at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

No candidate commands real authority in this field: Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that to only a 21% general-election share, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff crowd the Democratic lane — a genuinely fragmented race with no prohibitive favorite on either side.

Updated 6:42 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $862K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 68 days range 25% (32d ago) – 20% (65d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 31.2pp