Finance

Hormuz Traffic Looks Stuck Through Year-End — With a Slim Chance of a Deal

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?”

unlikely (12%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 28% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 12% Unlikely · Falling · B · tracked 95 days peak 62% (87d ago) · low 10% (1d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 20.0pp
24h move 0.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $41K $16.1M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 19 19 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 29 100%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 31 99%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 64% · -4.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 33% · -6.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -1.0 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · -1.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · -1.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 62% · -1.0 24h
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? Polymarket · September 27 59% · +26.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) Kalshi · Above 15 94% · -2.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 94% · +4.5 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h
US imports Russian diesel by...? Polymarket · March 31 66% · -3.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 40% · -5.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 36%
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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