WorldNational Party on track to win

National Party Very Likely to Win the Most Seats in New Zealand's 2026 Election

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “New Zealand legislative election winner?”

National Party: very likely (97%)
Resolved The money put National Party at 50% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome National Party 97% Very likely · Rising · A · tracked 18 days peak 69% (2d ago) · low 50% (17d ago)
24h move ▲ 38.7 pts National Party
Traded 24h $509K $747K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-08 in 1 day
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

National Party 97% ▲ 38.7
Labour Party 3% ▼ 38.8
Green Party 0% 0.0
ACT New Zealand 0% 0.0
New Zealand First Party 0% 0.0
Te Pāti Māori 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

New Zealand legislative election winner? Polymarket · National Party 97% · +38.7 24h
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? Polymarket · Christopher Luxon 84% · +29.0 24h
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? Polymarket · National + ACT + NZF 82% · +31.5 24h
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place Polymarket · Labour Party 99% · +41.8 24h
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory? Polymarket · Labour 0-5% 98% · +30.4 24h
NZ Election: National Party # of seats? Polymarket · 40-44 99% · +77.7 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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