World

Likud Is Likely to Win at Least 20 Seats in the Israeli Election

Source: Polymarket market “Israel Election: Likud # of seats?”

20+ Likud seats: likely (79%)
Leading outcome 20+ Likud seats 79% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 9 days leaning yes → likely
24h move ▼ 2.0 pts 20+ Likud seats
Traded 24h $30K $179K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-27
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

20-24 40% ▲ 6.0
25-29 24% ▼ 4.0
<20 21% ▲ 5.3
30-34 10% ▼ 3.0
35+ 4% ▼ 0.9

Source markets for this story

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Polymarket · Gadi Eizenkot 51% · +0.5 24h
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 99%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket · December 31 46% · -6.0 24h
Israel Election: Likud # of seats? Polymarket · 20+ Likud seats 79% · -2.0 24h
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) Polymarket · December 31 20% · -1.0 24h
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