U.S.all but decided

Jerônimo Rodrigues Is Virtually Certain to Win Bahia

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Bahia Governor Election Winner”

Jerônimo Rodrigues: virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Jerônimo Rodrigues at 58% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Jerônimo Rodrigues 99% Virtually certain · Rising · B · tracked 12 days peak 99% · low 58% (11d ago) leaning yes → virtually certain venues disagree 98.9pp
24h move ▲ 30.3 pts Jerônimo Rodrigues
Traded 24h $97K $377K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05 Today
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Jerônimo Rodrigues 99% ▲ 30.3
ACM Neto 0% ▼ 30.1
João Roma 0% 0.0
José Carlos Aleluia 0% 0.0
Kleber Rosa 0% 0.0
Rui Costa 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 82% · +17.6 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · +19.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 100% · +39.6 24h
Bahia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jerônimo Rodrigues 99% · +30.3 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? (Higher Strikes) Polymarket · 45-48% 100% · +50.4 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Amapá Polymarket · Lula 100% · +61.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? Polymarket · 44%+ 100% · +22.4 24h
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Douglas Ruas 91% · +69.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Kalshi · Augusto Cury 99% · +76.0 24h
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place Polymarket · Bia Kicis 95% · +13.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 100% · +74.5 24h
Ceará Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Elmano de Freitas 98% · +30.4 24h
Paraná Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Sergio Moro 97% · +24.9 24h
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Raquel Lyra 100% · +50.0 24h
Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...? Polymarket · October 5 0% · -17.4 24h
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Luciano Zucco 99% · +12.4 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes) Polymarket · 44-47% 100% · +37.5 24h
São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place Polymarket · André do Prado 77% · +15.3 24h
São Paulo Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Tarcísio de Freitas 100%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Augusto Cury Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 100% · +38.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 99% · +58.1 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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