World

Lee Jae-myung Is Likely to Serve Out 2026 as South Korea's President

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?”

very unlikely (10%)
Leading outcome Yes 10% Very unlikely · D
24h move ▲ 0.8 pts Yes
Traded 24h $11K $246K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Iran's Blockade Likely Ends This Year, But the Strait Stays Broken

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The diplomatic endgame is consolidating around a year-end resolution — yet even after the blockade lifts, Hormuz traffic returning to normal looks nearly impossible through at least September, meaning the shipping disruption outlasts the political fix by months.

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Venezuela Is Likely to Recognize Israel by Year-End

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A Maduro government pivot toward Israel would mark a stunning reversal for one of its longest-standing adversaries — suggesting back-channel diplomatic pressure, possibly linked to sanctions relief, is more advanced than public posturing indicates.

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The Houthis Are Still Hitting Ships

very likely (95%)

That people stake real money on which specific date the next strike lands — rather than whether one lands at all — reveals how thoroughly Red Sea disruption has normalized: the question is no longer if, but when, with full Bab el-Mandeb closure still a tail risk rather than a forecast.

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