World

Lee Jae-myung's Hold on South Korea's Presidency Is Now Virtually Certain to Last Through 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?”

very unlikely (3%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 10% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 3% Very unlikely · Falling · C · tracked 76 days peak 10% (68d ago) · low 2%
24h move ▼ 2.8 pts Yes
Traded 24h $44K $354K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Now Leads Israel's Next Election, but the Race Remains Volatile

Gadi Eizenkot: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning toward Eizenkot becoming prime minister — but this market has crossed conviction tiers eight times, and Netanyahu at 26% is not finished. The Yashar coalition priced to win most seats and Likud still favored to clear 20 seats together suggest a fractured Knesset where coalition arithmetic, not vote totals, will decide who governs.

Updated 9:04 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds — but Its Long-Term Survival Remains an Open Question

virtually certain (100%)

The guns are quiet and Hormuz shipping is flowing freely, but the ceasefire's durability past the U.S. midterms is genuinely uncertain — markets price only a 53% chance it survives through November 30, and a 38% chance through year-end, a fragile foundation for a post-conflict order.

Updated 1:33 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $340K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 90 days range 100% (54d ago) – 79% (26d ago) trending in today's news very likely → virtually certain 21 tier changes
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An Attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (50%)

What had been leaning toward yes has collapsed to a dead heat, but the broader picture offers little comfort — ceasefires between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are holding firm while a Hormuz blockade and full Iranian airspace closure remain live risks, leaving the region suspended between fragile stability and escalation.

Updated 6:09 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $81K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 21 days range 72% (14d ago) – 52% (19d ago) 3 tier changes