World

Netanyahu's Political Survival Is Now a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Netanyahu out by...?”

leaning yes (56%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 46% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome June 30, 2027 56% Leaning yes · Rising · B · tracked 90 days peak 72% (1d ago) · low 38% (2d ago) likely → leaning yes 7 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 26.6pp
24h move ▼ 16.0 pts June 30, 2027
Traded 24h $97K $124.8M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 22 22 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

June 30, 2027 56% ▼ 16.0
March 31, 2027 48% ▼ 23.5
December 31 28% ▼ 12.5

Source markets for this story

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Polymarket · Benjamin Netanyahu 43% · +15.5 24h
Israeli Legislative Election Winner Polymarket · Likud 97% · +67.0 24h
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? Kalshi · No one 52%
Israel Election: Likud # of seats? Polymarket · 20+ Likud seats 100% · +32.2 24h
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -2.9 24h
Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place Polymarket · Together 85% · +2.1 24h
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government? Polymarket · Benjamin Netanyahu 58% · +26.0 24h
Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout Polymarket · 74%+ 99% · +56.3 24h
Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win? Kalshi · Above 17 99% · +10.0 24h
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 56% · -16.0 24h
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Polymarket · Yes 92% · +46.5 24h
Which bloc will win a Knesset majority? Kalshi · None 89% · +3.0 24h
Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government? Kalshi · Benjamin Netanyahu 54% · +19.0 24h
Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place Polymarket · Yashar 97% · +69.5 24h
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Polymarket · Yes 54% · +14.0 24h
Israel Election: Otzma # of seats? Polymarket · 6-7 59% · +25.0 24h
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats? Polymarket · 7 49% · +22.4 24h
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? Polymarket · Ra'am 99% · +2.6 24h
Israel Election: Together # of seats? Polymarket · 11-13 59% · +36.0 24h
Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share? Polymarket · 4-5% 38% · +15.5 24h
Next Israeli Minister of Defense? Polymarket · No Next Minister by Feb 28 34% · -10.2 24h
Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats? Polymarket · <4 92% · +32.5 24h
The Money Talks — Eizenkot's Lead Is Real — But This Race Is Far From Settled
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World Likud on track to win

Likud Is Very Likely to Win the Most Seats in Israel's Next Election

Likud: very likely (97%)

What had been a coin flip three weeks ago is now a near-certainty for Netanyahu's party — but winning the most seats is not the same as governing: a coalition majority is priced at just 14%, meaning Likud's likely plurality may still produce a deadlocked Knesset.

Updated 8:18 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $8.9M markets read 22 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 90 days range 97% (0d ago) – 50% (23d ago) resolves today trending in today's news probably not → very likely 3 tier changes venues disagree 26.6pp
World odds favor None before 2027

Global Leadership Stability Leans Toward Holding Through 2027

None before 2027: leaning yes (56%)

Netanyahu, who had been the leading departure risk, has faded sharply as a near-term threat, pushing the 'no exits before 2027' outcome to a slim majority — but a market that has crossed conviction rungs six times is not settled, and Netanyahu's odds remain live enough to keep the picture genuinely uncertain.

Updated 5:02 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $102K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 85 days range 60% (0d ago) – 32% (84d ago) trending in today's news likely → leaning yes 7 tier changes
World

A Strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (48%)

What had been leaning toward yes has collapsed to a dead heat — the near-term threat is real but no longer the expected outcome, and a market that has swung across conviction rungs three times since tracking began could move sharply again on any escalation signal.

Updated 2:34 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $142K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 22 days range 72% (15d ago) – 46% (0d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 3 tier changes