U.S.

Pete Hegseth Is Likely to Remain Defense Secretary Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”

unlikely (20%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 20% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 20% Unlikely · Stable · C · tracked 66 days peak 26% (52d ago) · low 20% (50d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 3.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $54K $681K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (68%)

A Democratic House has moved to near-certainty, and Texas — once a stretch — is now a lean Democratic pick for the Senate seat, signaling that the political environment has shifted far enough to put formerly safe Republican terrain in play.

Updated 6:16 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.2M markets read 55 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 86 days range 68% (0d ago) – 44% (84d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 24.1pp
U.S. wide open

Republicans Are Headed for a Shrunken Senate Majority After the Midterms

48: unlikely (24%)

The plurality outcome now points to 48 seats — below the current majority threshold — and the distribution around it skews toward further losses rather than gains, suggesting the political environment is broadly hostile to the party in power.

Updated 6:42 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $199K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 73 days range 22% (60d ago) – 15% (3d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. one clear front-runner

Vance Leads the 2028 Republican Nomination Race as Rubio Closes In

J.D. Vance: a coin flip (45%)

Vance's incumbency advantage is real but far from decisive — his roughly even odds of securing the nomination mean the Republican field is genuinely open, and Rubio's surge signals the party is actively shopping for alternatives.

Updated 6:22 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $342K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 86 days range 46% (34d ago) – 39% (80d ago) 8 tier changes venues disagree 4.5pp