World

Khamenei's Succession Looks Likely Stable Through Mid-2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Iran leadership change by...?”

probably not (26%)
Resolved The money put June 30, 2027 at 26% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome June 30, 2027 26% Probably not · Rising · A · tracked 52 days peak 33% (41d ago) · low 22% (43d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts June 30, 2027
Traded 24h $356K $25.7M all time
Resolves by 2027-07-01
Source markets 16 16 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

June 30, 2027 26% 0.0
December 31 14% 0.0
November 30 8% 0.0
October 31 6% 0.0
September 30 1% ▼ 0.9

Source markets for this story

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -2.0 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 60%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 20 94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 88% · -3.5 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 68% · +2.0 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 62% · -0.5 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 94% · +3.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 24%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 33% · -1.0 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12% · -1.0 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 36% · -1.0 24h
The Money Talks — A US-Iran Ceasefire Is Probably Coming Before October — But the Clock Is Tightening
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World

A Trump-Greenland Deal Is Very Likely Before Year-End

very likely (94%)

What had been considered unlikely is now a near-conviction call — the money shifted a full confidence tier in a single day. Critically, related markets still price actual US acquisition of Greenland at just 3-6%, meaning the deal being priced is a political agreement, not a transfer of sovereignty.

Updated 10:16 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $115K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news unlikely → very likely
World United Russia (ER) on track to win

United Russia Looks Likely to Dominate the Next Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): likely (82%)

Putin's party is on track to entrench its supermajority, with the Communist Party set to fill second place as a tame also-ran — leaving no credible opposition bloc in sight. The signal has been volatile enough to warrant watching, but the money has now priced a United Russia sweep of every region as more likely than not.

Updated 2:57 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 52 days range 80% (5d ago) – 60% (50d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news 4 tier changes
World one clear front-runner

Marine Le Pen Leads a Wide-Open French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (35%)

Le Pen's first-round passage is nearly certain, but her path to the Élysée is far from clear — a fragmented field where Philippe, Mélenchon, and Lisnard collectively hold more probability than she does means the second round remains the decisive, unpredictable event.

Updated 3:46 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $590K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 52 days range 38% (0d ago) – 29% (51d ago)