World

Ukraine Is Unlikely to Retake Uspenivka Before Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?”

unlikely (20%)
Leading outcome December 31 20% Unlikely · Rising · C · tracked 75 days peak 45% · low 32% (72d ago) probably not → unlikely
24h move ▼ 21.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $63K $277K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

Updated 11:24 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $1.3M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 48% (11d ago) – 29% (92d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes
World

Israel's Next Government Coalition Is Deeply Uncertain

probably not (44%)

No party or bloc commands a clear inside track: Together and Yashar are effectively tied at 44%, while Shas is surging fast — the money's picture is of a government still being negotiated in the abstract, with the coalition math unresolved and fluid.

Updated 1:16 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $44K venue Polymarket grade C range 55% (2d ago) – 42% (1d ago) trending in today's news 2 tier changes
World leaning Christopher Luxon

New Zealand's Next Election Is a Near Dead Heat, With Luxon Narrowly Ahead

Christopher Luxon: a coin flip (53%)

A five-point swing toward Luxon in a single day shifted the race from effectively tied to a narrow lean, but with 47% still on Chris Hipkins, no outcome is close to settled. The contest remains genuinely open, and the result will likely hinge on coalition arithmetic rather than any single decisive break.

Updated 5:08 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $32K venue Polymarket grade C probably not → a coin flip