Israel's Next Government Coalition Is Deeply Uncertain
Source: Polymarket market “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?”
a coin flip (45%)
Leading outcome
Yashar 45%
A coin flip · Stable · B
peak 55% (2d ago) · low 42% (1d ago)
leaning yes → a coin flip
2 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 25.5pp
24h move
▼
20.5 pts
Yashar
Traded 24h
$44K
$261K all time
Resolves by
2027-06-30
Source markets
10
10 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Yashar
45%
▼
20.5
Together
38%
▼
9.0
Likud
37%
▲
3.0
United Torah Judaism
27%
▲
4.5
Yisrael Beiteinu
26%
▼
2.5
The Democrats
24%
▲
5.5
Source markets for this story
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket · Benjamin Netanyahu 42% · -1.0 24h
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Polymarket · Likud 99% · +2.6 24h
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
Kalshi · No one 53% · -2.0 24h
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Polymarket · 20+ Likud seats 100%
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Polymarket · Gadi Eizenkot 70% · +12.0 24h
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Polymarket · Yashar 45% · -20.5 24h
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?
Polymarket · 8+ 97% · +5.0 24h
Netanyahu out by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 32% · -7.5 24h
How many Israeli elections before government formed?
Polymarket · 2 50% · +16.0 24h
Next Israeli government formed by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 64% · -1.0 24h
The Money Talks —
Eizenkot's Lead Is Real — But This Race Is Far From Settled
Get an alert when Israel Election moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.