U.S.

Justice Alito's Retirement Before Mid-2027 Remains a Coin-Flip

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?”

probably not (40%)
Resolved The money put June 30, 2027 at 40% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome June 30, 2027 40% Probably not · Falling · C · tracked 92 days peak 59% (18d ago) · low 28% (85d ago) 4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.5 pts June 30, 2027
Traded 24h $26K $4.6M all time
Resolves by 2027-07-01

Where the money stands

June 30, 2027 40% ▼ 1.5
December 31 17% ▲ 2.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

Democrats Are Poised to Reclaim Both Chambers in 2026

likely (83%)

A House near-certain to flip Democratic and a Senate now favoring Democrats signals a broad repudiation wave, not a surgical pickup — with Texas and Michigan both leaning blue, the map has expanded well beyond what Republicans can easily defend.

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Democrats Are Likely to Sweep Both Chambers in 2026

Democrats Sweep: likely (76%)

What had been a lean is now a clear directional call — a Democratic House is already near-certain, and the Senate has crossed into likely territory, making a full sweep the single most probable outcome. The conviction has been volatile enough over the past three months that a further shift remains possible, but the money is no longer hedging.

Updated 3:18 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. odds favor Byron Donalds (R)

Byron Donalds Leads Florida's Governor Race as David Jolly Closes In

Byron Donalds (R): leaning yes (64%)

Democrats are making credible inroads across the 2026 governor map — Ohio and Nevada lean their way, and Florida, once an 83% Republican lock just five days ago, has slipped to a narrower edge, suggesting a national environment that is shifting against Republican incumbency in swing states.

Updated 9:38 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $192K markets read 36 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 48 days range 83% (8d ago) – 64% (1d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news 3 tier changes venues agree