Finance

OpenAI Is Unlikely to Launch a Social Network in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?”

unlikely (12%)
Leading outcome Yes 12% Unlikely · D very unlikely → unlikely
24h move ▲ 6.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $14K $78K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Finance 25 bps increase on track to win

The Fed Is Likely to Hike Rates in September — and the Tightening Cycle Has Further to Run

25 bps increase: likely (80%)

A hold this year is now virtually off the table, with hikes expected to extend into 2027 — meaning borrowing costs are headed higher for longer than most anticipated even weeks ago, when a September move looked far from certain.

Updated 10:10 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Very Likely to Hit 5% This Year

very likely (94%)

Five percent is no longer a tail risk — it is the expected outcome, consistent with the Fed hike cluster pricing a sustained hawkish turn. The yield climbing this high would pressure mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and risk assets simultaneously, making it the central macro fact of the second half of 2026.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $20K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 45 days range 98% (0d ago) – 40% (5d ago) trending in today's news 7 tier changes
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Oil Hitting $115 This Year Is Now a Dead Heat

a coin flip (48%)

Crude is already trading above $95 and Brent above $97 in the near term — the Iran ceasefire removes some war-premium uncertainty, but the Hormuz disruption persists, and the money now gives even odds that WTI spikes well above current levels before year-end. What was 'probably not' two days ago is now genuinely open.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $42K markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 46 days range 48% (0d ago) – 23% (39d ago) trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip 7 tier changes