Michael Cloud Is Very Likely to Hold TX-27 for Republicans
Source: Polymarket market “TX-27 House Election Winner”
Michael Cloud (R): very likely (97%)
Leading outcome
Michael Cloud (R) 97%
Very likely · B · tracked 7 days
virtually certain → very likely
venues disagree 22.2pp
24h move
▼
0.9 pts
Michael Cloud (R)
Traded 24h
$22K
$99K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Today
Source markets
119
119 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Michael Cloud (R)
97%
▼
0.9
Tanya Lloyd (D)
2%
0.1
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +5.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 98% · +55.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Scott Colom 82% · +67.0 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
Polymarket · None 85% · +51.9 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +24.4 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +23.4 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 87% · +17.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 100% · +45.7 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Below 45 66% · +49.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 100% · +12.6 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · 56 65% · +57.5 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 0.5+ pts 100% · +26.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 81% · +67.3 24h
NY-17 House winner?
Kalshi · Cait Conley 99% · +41.6 24h
Ohio vs. Akron
Polymarket · Pick-Six Scored 50% · +0.5 24h
Kansas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Holscher 98% · +61.7 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 86% · +14.2 24h
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)
Polymarket · Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 54% · +4.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 100% · +32.5 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 61% · +45.0 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Raymond Smith Jr. 76% · +34.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Kalshi · Yes 4% · -17.9 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 100% · +44.5 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 100% · +22.7 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
Kalshi · At least 46 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Mississippi 94% · +91.0 24h
Florida Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Donalds, 0.5+ pts 99% · +35.0 24h
Will the House impeach Trump?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 75% · +11.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Mary Peltola 86% · +17.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Polymarket · 44 73% · +66.1 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 99% · +18.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 74% · +31.2 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 100% · +23.4 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100% · +5.0 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Cindy Holscher (D) 99% · +63.3 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Talarico 9-12% 46% · +40.4 24h
NC-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Chuck Hubbard 84% · +66.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 100% · +9.4 24h
AZ-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Jonathan Nez 74% · +29.0 24h
CO-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Jeff Hurd 90% · +49.0 24h
MN-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Jake Johnson 89% · +49.0 24h
ME-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Paul LePage 91% · +32.0 24h
Texas State Senate winner?
Kalshi · Republican party 93% · -4.0 24h
Texas Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Hinojosa, 1+ pts 100% · +68.7 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 99% · +63.7 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 99% · +65.1 24h
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?
Kalshi · Democratic sweep 89% · +46.0 24h
AZ-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Mark Lamb 88% · -2.0 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 100% · +6.5 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100% · +4.3 24h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 3% · -20.1 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 99% · +42.4 24h
Michigan Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8% 87% · +72.0 24h
Minnesota Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Flanagan, 1+ pts 100% · +9.0 24h
Texas Senate General Election: voter turnout
Kalshi · Above 8.20M 99%
Alaska House winner?
Kalshi · Nick Begich III 87% · +7.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Jackson, 1+ pts 100% · +33.9 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 65% · +50.8 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 98% · +67.7 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 96% · +38.0 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 100% · +15.4 24h
Will Trump declare an election emergency?
Kalshi · Yes 14% · -16.0 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 99% · +65.0 24h
WA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Michael Baumgartner 80% · +3.0 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 98% · +27.4 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 99% · +19.1 24h
South Carolina Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · Annie Andrews, 4-6% 90% · +86.0 24h
Kansas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Hamilton, 0.5+ pts 99% · +38.1 24h
AZ-08 House winner?
Kalshi · Abe Hamadeh 83% · -5.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +53.9 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 100% · +9.7 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jeff Hurd (R) 90% · +48.5 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 99% · +30.1 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 98% · +50.6 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 99% · +61.0 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 99% · +68.1 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 100% · +12.1 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 92% · +32.1 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner
Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 98% · +34.3 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +11.2 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · El-Sayed 6-9% 72% · +51.0 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · French Hill (R) 99% · +26.5 24h
MI-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Sean McCann (D) 83% · +23.5 24h
AZ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Nez (D) 68% · +24.0 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 99% · +69.5 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 95% · +30.2 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · Ossoff 18%+ 78% · +68.7 24h
Closest Senate Race?
Polymarket · Mississippi 78% · +74.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 86% · +59.5 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 80% · +58.1 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 90% · +22.8 24h
NC-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Chuck Hubbard (D) 83% · +66.2 24h
NC-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Lakesha Womack (D) 98% · +76.6 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 97% · +26.9 24h
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Donalds 0-3% 98% · +71.2 24h
MI-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · William Lawrence (D) 99% · +21.3 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 93% · +2.5 24h
Nebraska Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jim Pillen (R) 100% · +10.0 24h
FL-26 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) 97% · +11.2 24h
CO-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Eileen Laubacher (D) 95% · +60.9 24h
Ball State vs. UMass
Polymarket · O/U 35.5 80% · -3.0 24h
NC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Don Davis (D) 100% · +12.4 24h
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame
Polymarket · O/U 34.5 87% · +14.0 24h
NY-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nick LaLota (R) 97% · +18.2 24h
TX-32 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jace Yarbrough (R) 89% · +4.1 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 65% · +16.4 24h
TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrat 6-9% 39% · +30.0 24h
TX-27 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Michael Cloud (R) 97% · -0.9 24h
NC-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cyril Jefferson (D) 100% · +86.0 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-03 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 50% · -17.1 24h
Alaska Senate loser concedes by...?
Polymarket · November 4 50% · -5.0 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-02 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 74% · -21.6 24h
CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrat 0-5% 50% · +7.0 24h
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?
Polymarket · Yes 55% · -19.1 24h
Dem sweep & US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by end of 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No US stake 69% · +17.4 24h
North Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Cooper 18%+ 95% · +71.7 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 99% · +22.1 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas 70% · +19.4 24h
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