Jake Ellzey Will Win Texas's 6th Congressional District
Source: Polymarket market “TX-06 House Election Winner”
Jake Ellzey (R): virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome
Jake Ellzey (R) 99%
Virtually certain · B
very likely → virtually certain
venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move
▲
4.3 pts
Jake Ellzey (R)
Traded 24h
$29K
$117K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
33
33 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Jake Ellzey (R)
99%
▲
4.3
Danny Minton (D)
1%
▼
2.1
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 36%
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 63% · +1.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 88% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 66%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 19% · +1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59% · -1.4 24h
Nevada Governor winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Ford 56% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 59% · +2.0 24h
Massachusetts Governor winner?
Kalshi · Maura Healey 94% · -1.1 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26%
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 75% · -2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 76%
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 92% · -7.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 47% · -2.0 24h
Cali vs Junior
Kalshi · Cali 57% · +5.0 24h
Montana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Kurt Alme 90% · -0.9 24h
Tennessee Governor winner?
Kalshi · Marsha Blackburn 94% · +2.2 24h
TX-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jake Ellzey (R) 99% · +4.3 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% · +0.9 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66% · -1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 96%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 40%
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