Mike Kelly Is Very Likely to Hold PA-16 for Republicans
Source: Polymarket market “PA-16 House Election Winner”
Mike Kelly (R): very likely (96%)
Leading outcome
Mike Kelly (R) 96%
Very likely · C
venues disagree 11.2pp
24h move
▲
1.1 pts
Mike Kelly (R)
Traded 24h
$16K
$74K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
30
30 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Mike Kelly (R)
96%
▲
1.1
Justin Wagner (D)
4%
▼
1.4
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 61%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68%
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?
Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 87% · -9.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 61%
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 59% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62% · -2.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 57% · -3.0 24h
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
Polymarket · December 31 26% · -5.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 35%
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 60%
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 17% · +1.0 24h
MN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 93%
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 79% · -2.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 56% · -1.0 24h
FL-25 House winner?
Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 80% · +5.0 24h
NY-23 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nick Langworthy (R) 97% · +0.9 24h
MN-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Tom Emmer (R) 95%
NH-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Maggie Goodlander (D) 96% · +1.3 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 60%
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 52%
KS-04 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ron Estes (R) 94% · -0.5 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70%
PA-16 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mike Kelly (R) 96% · +1.1 24h
TX-08 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jessica Hart Steinmann (R) 95% · -0.5 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 88% · +0.5 24h
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