U.S.odds favor Anthony Constantino (R)

Republicans Still Favor NY-21 but Democrats Are Closing In

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “NY-21 House Election Winner”

Anthony Constantino (R): leaning yes (74%)
Leading outcome Anthony Constantino (R) 74% Leaning yes · B likely → leaning yes
24h move ▼ 7.0 pts Anthony Constantino (R)
Traded 24h $14K $88K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Anthony Constantino (R) 74% ▼ 7.0
Blake Gendebien (D) 26% ▲ 7.0

Source markets for this story

SC-01 House winner? Kalshi · Jenny Costa Honeycutt 71%
NC-11 House winner? Kalshi · Jamie Ager 76% · +5.0 24h
NY-21 House winner? Kalshi · Anthony Constantino 74% · -6.0 24h
NY-03 House winner? Kalshi · Tom Suozzi 90% · +2.0 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) 68% · -0.5 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 74% · -7.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

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A Democratic win in Texas would signal a broader Senate map expansion; read alongside Democratic leads in Ohio and a strong hold in Alaska, the money now favors a Senate pickup environment that extends well beyond safe territory.

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California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Initiative Appears Headed for Defeat

probably not (34%)

Even in a deep-blue state, a one-time levy on billionaires can't clear 35% — the money is pricing in the familiar gap between progressive polling enthusiasm and ballot-box reality on wealth taxes.

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traded today $90K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 56 days range 36% (55d ago) – 27% (0d ago)