U.S.Ron Estes (R) on track to win

Ron Estes Is Very Likely to Hold KS-04 for Republicans

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “KS-04 House Election Winner”

Ron Estes (R): very likely (94%)
Leading outcome Ron Estes (R) 94% Very likely · C venues disagree 11.2pp
24h move 0.0 pts Ron Estes (R)
Traded 24h $19K $106K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 49 49 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Ron Estes (R) 94% 0.0
Katy Tyndell (D) 6% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 61% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 64% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
New York Governor winner? Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94% · -1.2 24h
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 79%
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi · Rick Jackson 54% · -1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 91% · +2.5 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 61% · -1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 56% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 36% · +1.0 24h
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 81%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 67%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62% · -2.0 24h
NY-03 House winner? Kalshi · Tom Suozzi 90%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76% · -2.1 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 65% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 59%
Massachusetts Governor winner? Kalshi · Maura Healey 95%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 96% · +5.5 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 81% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 58% · -2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 80% · +1.9 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 85% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 48 17% · +2.0 24h
MN-05 House winner? Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 92% · -1.3 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57% · -1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 51% · -0.8 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 60%
Michigan Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 96% · +1.7 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96%
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 54% · -0.5 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 95%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 88%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 84% · +0.9 24h
NY-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Nick Langworthy (R) 97% · +1.5 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · -0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62%
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 80% · +0.6 24h
TX-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Pat Fallon (R) 96% · +0.7 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 62%
NH-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Maggie Goodlander (D) 95%
TX-08 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jessica Hart Steinmann (R) 95%
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 72%
KS-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Ron Estes (R) 94%
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 62%
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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