U.S.Republican Party on track to win

Republicans Are Likely to Hold Florida's 12th Congressional District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-12 House Election Winner”

Republican Party: likely (89%)
Leading outcome Republican Party 89% Likely · D
24h move ▲ 6.5 pts Republican Party
Traded 24h $14K $56K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-03

Where the money stands

Republican Party 89% ▲ 6.5
Democratic Party 10% ▼ 8.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Scott Jennings: probably not (37%)

Alina Habba's collapse from frontrunner to also-ran reshuffles a genuinely unsettled field — and with an announcement likely before October, the White House faces a credibility decision about who it trusts at the podium.

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House — but the Senate Stays Republican

Democratic Party: likely (85%)

A split Congress is the most probable outcome of the midterms, meaning legislative gridlock rather than a Democratic governing trifecta — the House flip, if it comes, changes the oversight landscape far more than the policy one.

Updated 10:45 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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U.S. Darline Graham on track to win

Darline Graham Is Likely to Win South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary

Darline Graham: likely (86%)

The seat itself is almost certain to stay Republican, making Graham's primary victory the effective election — Ralph Norman's modest surge suggests some residual doubt, but the race is not genuinely open.

Updated 11:45 AM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $900K markets read 4 venue Kalshi grade A