Robert Garcia Is Very Likely to Hold CA-42 for Democrats
Source: Polymarket market “CA-42 House Election Winner”
Robert Garcia (D): very likely (95%)
Leading outcome
Robert Garcia (D) 95%
Very likely · C
venues disagree 29.3pp
24h move
▲
0.8 pts
Robert Garcia (D)
Traded 24h
$16K
$41K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
36
36 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Robert Garcia (D)
95%
▲
0.8
Brian Burley (R)
4%
▼
1.5
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 64% · +4.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 76% · -4.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 62% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 59%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 66%
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 76% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 72% · +5.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 70%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 74% · +7.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 94% · +1.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 54%
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 78%
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 60% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 72% · +4.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 72% · -5.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 37%
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 74% · +3.0 24h
FL-14 House winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Castor 67% · +4.0 24h
PA-07 House winner?
Kalshi · Bob Brooks 82% · +2.0 24h
Florida Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 74% · -4.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Karen Bass 56% · -1.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 52% · -2.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 66% · +1.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 72% · -6.2 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) 94% · +2.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 95%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 68% · -1.0 24h
Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?
Polymarket · ↓ 8% 86%
Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?
Polymarket · ↓ 35% 91%
Georgia Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 64% · +3.0 24h
MO-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Emanuel Cleaver (D) 88% · -4.0 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 84% · +1.0 24h
CA-42 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Robert Garcia (D) 95% · +0.8 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86%
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
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