U.S.Jay Obernolte (R) on track to win

Jay Obernolte Is Very Likely to Hold CA-23 for Republicans

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “CA-23 House Election Winner”

Jay Obernolte (R): very likely (96%)
Leading outcome Jay Obernolte (R) 96% Very likely · Rising · B · tracked 72 days venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move 0.1 pts Jay Obernolte (R)
Traded 24h $27K $90K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 24 24 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Jay Obernolte (R) 96% 0.1
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) 3% ▼ 1.3

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 61% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 63% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 67%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 60% · -2.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 64% · +1.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Kalshi · Yes 26% · -8.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 86%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 61%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 58%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi · Bill Hagerty 92% · -1.5 24h
SC-01 House winner? Kalshi · Jenny Costa Honeycutt 72% · +2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 48 15% · -1.0 24h
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 80% · +3.0 24h
New York Attorney General winner? Kalshi · Letitia James 87% · -7.4 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 36%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 62%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
Tennessee Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Bill Hagerty (R) 92% · -2.8 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 58% · +1.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 72% · -1.0 24h
CA-23 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jay Obernolte (R) 96%
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 24 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 73 days range 94% (6d ago) – 86% (67d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 3.5pp
U.S. leaning Nithya Raman

Los Angeles Mayor's Race Is Now a Dead Heat

Nithya Raman: a coin flip (51%)

Karen Bass has clawed back to virtual parity, erasing what had been a clear Raman advantage — the race has collapsed from a lean into a genuine toss-up, and the next few months will determine whether Bass's recovery is a trend or a temporary surge.

Updated 12:09 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $833K markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 73 days range 68% (54d ago) – 56% (17d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip venues agree
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field as AOC Surges

J.D. Vance: unlikely (20%)

No candidate commands conviction — the field is so fractured that the nominal frontrunner holds barely one-in-five odds, meaning the 2028 race is genuinely anyone's to claim. AOC's nomination odds remain well below her general-election ceiling, signaling real doubt she clears the Democratic primary.

Updated 9:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $402K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 73 days range 23% (21d ago) – 18% (55d ago) venues disagree 29.5pp