World

Iran's Ceasefire Holds, But the Strait Stays Closed and No Deal Is Near

By Priced In News Staff

probably not (28%)

Leading outcome December 31, 2027 28% Probably not · A

24h move ▼ 5.5 pts December 31, 2027

Traded 24h $26K $2.2M all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31, 2027 28% ▼ 5.5

December 31, 2026 11% 0.0

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 22 95% · +2.4 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 57% · -5.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi · Before Jan 20, 2029 33% · -6.0 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 33% · +1.0 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 56% · +6.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · +1.0 24h

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25) Kalshi · Above 15 96% · +5.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 36% · -0.5 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 79% · +0.5 24h

Iran coup attempt by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 28% · -5.5 24h

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -2.0 24h