Between 14 and 19 Major Earthquakes in 2026 Is Very Likely
Source: Polymarket market “How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?”
14–19 major earthquakes: virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome
14–19 major earthquakes 98%
Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 82 days
peak 87% · low 40% (80d ago)
likely → virtually certain
2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
10.5 pts
14–19 major earthquakes
Traded 24h
$58K
$1.5M all time
Resolves by
2027-01-08
Where the money stands
14–16
64%
▲
10.0
17–19
34%
▲
0.5
20+
4%
▼
0.9
11–13
3%
▼
0.8
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