World

A Trump-Flávio Bolsonaro Meeting This Year Is Now Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?”

unlikely (20%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 42% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 20% Unlikely · Falling · C · tracked 7 days peak 46% (6d ago) · low 18% (2d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 4.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $57K $162K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but a Durable Settlement Looks Far Off

virtually certain (100%)

A Hormuz agreement this year sits at just 40%, normal strait traffic by year-end at 12%, and a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting is barely a coin flip — the ceasefire is solid for now, but the underlying standoff is unresolved and the region remains one miscalculation from crisis.

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Saudi Coalition Strikes on Yemen Are Very Likely Resuming Immediately

very likely (92%)

What was a coin-flip yesterday is now a near-certainty for consecutive days starting November 4, with odds still above 50% out through mid-month — the pattern reads as a sustained campaign, not a single retaliatory strike.

Updated 10:23 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $94K venue Polymarket grade C a coin flip → very likely
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Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race as Lagarde Surges

Marine Le Pen: probably not (40%)

Le Pen has shed ground from a peak two weeks ago and the field behind her is fragmenting further, with Lagarde now the sharpest mover — a sign that the center is still searching for a consolidating figure rather than conceding the race to the right.

Updated 12:01 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $1.1M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 98 days range 48% (16d ago) – 29% (97d ago) 4 tier changes