World

Flávio Bolsonaro Is Very Likely to Avoid Arrest Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?”

very unlikely (7%)
Leading outcome Yes 7% Very unlikely · C
24h move ▼ 1.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $21K $24K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Virtually Certain to Hold Through Late October

virtually certain (100%)

The guns are staying quiet for now, but the ceasefire is not a peace — the Strait of Hormuz remains shut with no return to normal expected through October 31, and the Iranian regime looks stable, meaning Washington and Tehran are locked in a frozen standoff with no exit priced in.

Updated 9:13 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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Le Pen's Presidential Bid Is Now a Coin Flip

Marine Le Pen: a coin flip (47%)

What had been probably not is now a genuine dead heat — but a market that has swung this sharply twice before should not be read as settled; her 89% chance of reaching the second round means the real question is who faces her there, in a fractured field where Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon together hold as much weight as she does.

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Trump and Putin Are Likely to Meet Next in China

China: likely (78%)

Beijing's role as the venue of choice reflects how thoroughly China has positioned itself as the indispensable broker between Washington and Moscow — a reading that has held firm even as this market has swung across conviction rungs ten times. The slim but rising 'no meeting' odds are the only dissent.

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