World

France Is Unlikely to Declare a State of Emergency This Year

Source: Polymarket market “France declares state of emergency by...?”

unlikely (20%)
Leading outcome December 31 20% Unlikely · Rising · C peak 24% · low 16% (1d ago)
24h move ▲ 4.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $80K $103K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 2 2 markets · all agree

Where the money stands

December 31 20% ▲ 4.0
October 31 14% ▲ 5.0
October 21 2% ▼ 1.7

Source markets for this story

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? Polymarket · December 31 3% · -1.2 24h
France declares state of emergency by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · +4.0 24h
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