WorldFlavio Bolsonaro on track to win

Flávio Bolsonaro Likely Wins Amapá but His Lead Has Eroded Fast

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá”

Flavio Bolsonaro: likely (76%)
Leading outcome Flavio Bolsonaro 76% Likely · Falling · B · tracked 6 days peak 94% (4d ago) · low 63% 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 7.0 pts Flavio Bolsonaro
Traded 24h $38K $92K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-26
Source markets 4 4 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Flavio Bolsonaro 76% ▼ 7.0
Lula 22% ▲ 5.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · -7.8 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · -8.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 42% · +6.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 76% · -7.0 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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