U.S.No Hormuz Agreement on track to win

The Strait of Hormuz Will Likely Remain Unresolved Through the Midterms

By Priced In News Staff

No Hormuz Agreement: likely (83%)

Leading outcome No Hormuz Agreement 83% Likely · A

24h move 0.0 pts No Hormuz Agreement

Traded 24h $109K $103K all time

Resolves by 2026-11-04

Where the money stands

No Hormuz Agreement 83% 0.0

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 10% 0.0

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 7% 0.0

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 88%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 12 99% · +2.7 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 66% · +1.5 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18% · +1.0 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 15 97% · +1.5 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -2.0 24h

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 83%

Saudi airspace closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · +4.5 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 40% · +6.0 24h

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 10 98%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 67%

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 31%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22% · -1.0 24h

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) Kalshi · Above 10 98% · +2.0 24h

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 4 75% · -8.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 29% · +3.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 36%