U.S.

Hegseth Likely Survives as Defense Secretary Through November

By Priced In News Staff

unlikely (22%)

Leading outcome Yes 22% Unlikely · Stable · B peak 34% (1d ago) · low 28% probably not → unlikely venues disagree 4.0pp

24h move ▼ 9.0 pts Yes

Traded 24h $185K $523K all time

Resolves by 2026-12-01

Source markets for this story

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 91% · -2.0 24h

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 42% · -8.0 24h

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 22% · -9.0 24h

Pete Hegseth impeached by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 60% · +9.5 24h