World

US-Iran Senior Talks Are Now a Coin Flip After Weeks of Near-Silence

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?”

probably not (40%)
Resolved The money put December 31, 2026 at 44% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31, 2026 40% Probably not · Falling · A · tracked 51 days peak 87% (50d ago) · low 32% (16d ago) 11 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts December 31, 2026
Traded 24h $57K $2.1M all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
Source markets 20 20 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31, 2026 40% ▲ 3.0
November 30, 2026 18% ▲ 4.0

Source markets for this story

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 64% · -2.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 11 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · December 31 82% · +1.0 24h
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Polymarket · October 25 49%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10% · -2.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · -1.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) Kalshi · Above 15 91% · -1.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 3%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 40% · +3.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · -2.0 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · -3.0 24h
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? Polymarket · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 92% · +0.5 24h
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Polymarket · September 21 90%
Will Iran target Oman by...? Polymarket · December 31 90% · +8.4 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 2% · -0.6 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 18% · -2.0 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 12%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 19% · -1.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 94%
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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