U.S.odds favor Aaron Flint (R)

Aaron Flint Leads Montana's First District Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “MT-01 House Election Winner”

Aaron Flint (R): leaning yes (68%)
Leading outcome Aaron Flint (R) 68% Leaning yes · C
24h move ▲ 7.0 pts Aaron Flint (R)
Traded 24h $20K $49K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04

Where the money stands

Aaron Flint (R) 68% ▲ 7.0
Sam Forstag (D) 32% ▼ 4.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (66%)

A full Democratic sweep — House and Senate — has climbed from a low of 44% two months ago to its current peak, driven heavily by near-certain House odds and a competitive but live Senate map in Texas and Alaska; the shift is real but the market has crossed conviction rungs twice, so the lead is not locked in.

Updated 4:54 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.3M markets read 20 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 69 days range 66% (1d ago) – 44% (67d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 27.4pp
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Race at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

No candidate commands real authority in this field: Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that to only a 21% general-election share, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff crowd the Democratic lane — a genuinely fragmented race with no prohibitive favorite on either side.

Updated 6:42 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $862K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 69 days range 25% (33d ago) – 20% (66d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 31.2pp
U.S. odds favor Aaron Ford (D)

Nevada's Governor Race Is a Dead Heat

Aaron Ford (D): a coin flip (52%)

Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo are separated by a whisker, and the race has swung dramatically over the past month — whoever wins will do so on the narrowest of margins.

Updated 9:23 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $60K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 37 days range 60% (27d ago) – 48% (20d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 2 tier changes