Finance

OpenAI's Next GPT Model Will Not Crack the 1450 Benchmark

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?”

virtually impossible (0%)
Resolved The money put 1450+ at 80% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 1450+ 0% Virtually impossible · C · tracked 4 days leaning yes → virtually impossible
24h move ▼ 69.0 pts 1450+
Traded 24h $24K $47K all time
Resolves by 2027-06-30

Where the money stands

1450+ 0% ▼ 69.0
1460+ 0% ▼ 24.9
1470+ 0% ▼ 19.4
1480+ 0% ▼ 5.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance Xiaomi on track to win

Xiaomi Is Likely to Lead Chinese AI by September — but the Race Remains Volatile

Xiaomi: likely (87%)

What was virtually impossible 24 hours ago is now the strong consensus call: Xiaomi has displaced Alibaba as the expected top Chinese AI model by end of September. But this market has flipped conviction tiers eleven times, and Alibaba still commands a meaningful share of October odds, so no outcome should be treated as settled.

Updated 1:03 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $119K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 58 days range 92% (1d ago) – 59% (0d ago) resolves in 4 days virtually impossible → likely 11 tier changes venues disagree 9.2pp
Finance odds favor 25 bps increase

The Fed Is Now Leaning Toward a Rate Hike in October

25 bps increase: leaning yes (66%)

What had been a coin flip is now a clear lean: a hike in October looks increasingly like the base case, with December priced even higher and the prospect of two hikes this year now a near-certainty at 91% — though a triple-hike sequence remains a minority view, and this market has reversed sharply before.

Updated 3:21 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.1M markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 59 days range 72% (29d ago) – 50% (8d ago) 4 tier changes
Finance

Bitcoin's Rally Back to $90,000 Is Now in Doubt

leaning yes (70%)

What had been likely is now leaning yes — and given that this market has flipped conviction rungs ten times, that uncertainty deserves weight. Near-term prices look firm above $84,000 this week, but the odds of clearing $90,000 by year-end have slid sharply from their peak of 92% a month ago, and a drop toward $65,000–$70,000 is now a live tail risk rather than a remote one.

Updated 4:10 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $540K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 59 days range 92% (35d ago) – 66% (8d ago) trending in today's news 11 tier changes