World

The Strait of Hormuz Remains a War Zone Through September

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (99%)

Leading outcome September 21 99% Virtually certain · Rising · A · tracked 9 days peak 99% · low 76% (7d ago) leaning yes → virtually certain

24h move 0.4 pts September 21

Traded 24h $80K $154K all time

Resolves by 2026-09-30 in 3 days

Where the money stands

September 21 99% 0.4

September 23 98% 0.0

September 30 71% ▲ 36.5

September 27 62% ▲ 39.0

September 28 50% 0.0

September 20 49% ▲ 24.2

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 94% · +4.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 18% · -1.0 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -1.0 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 73% · +2.5 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 74% · +1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Polymarket · September 21 99%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 20%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · +1.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22% · -1.0 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · -2.0 24h

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 60% · -1.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%