Hormuz Shipping Attacks Are Virtually Certain to Continue Through Late September
Source: Polymarket market “Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?”
very likely (92%)
Leading outcome
September 21 92%
Very likely · Rising · B · tracked 55 days
peak 99% (45d ago) · low 76% (53d ago)
2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
0.5 pts
September 21
Traded 24h
$24K
$182K all time
Resolves by
2026-09-30
Where the money stands
September 21
92%
▲
0.5
September 29
66%
0.0
September 28
32%
▼
16.0
September 30
25%
▲
0.5
September 20
23%
▲
19.4
September 26
20%
▲
16.6
The Money Talks —
The Diplomatic Window Is Still Open — But It's Narrowing Fast
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